All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson

The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.

A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.

Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.

Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.

Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.

The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.

Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.

News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.

A post-oil future isn’t without risks, whether for Middle Eastern producers or Western economies still tied to hydrocarbons in myriad ways.

Manama is still grappling with the complex challenge of developing ties with Israel while coping with homegrown Shia militancy.

Benefitting from offshore natural gas reserves should be a win-win situation, but in this case the players may turn it into a zero-sum game.

If the $1.1 billion deal goes ahead, it will strengthen Abu Dhabi’s claim to be a player in the East Mediterranean.

A bevy of Israeli security officials will soon visit Washington against a backdrop of Vienna talks, Saudi engagement with Tehran, and continued nuclear moves.

Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.

With a basic knowledge of uranium enrichment and an interactive spreadsheet, governments and even the public can quickly work out how close Tehran may be to a nuclear weapon.

One obvious remedy involves asking Riyadh to end its production cutback, but any such request could be complicated by the administration’s recent friction with the crown prince.

The new administration seems to regard Khashoggi’s death as merely the best known of the crown prince’s sins, but it is hard to see an alternative successor in the House of Saud.

A rare visit by an Egyptian cabinet official marks a significant upgrade in bilateral energy ties, though questions remain about Palestinian, Gulf, and environmental issues.

The change of administrations and the realities of COVID-era diplomacy may give Gulf leaders a sense that they are being kept at a distance on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Explosions in Riyadh, uncertainty about the Iran nuclear deal, and a potentially damaging CIA report about Jamal Khashoggi’s murder are among the many factors that could alter the new administration’s calculus.