All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi

The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceasefire” and keep up the pressure.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.

Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.

Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.

Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.

An interactive map showing the extent to which Houthi forces, their Iranian military patrons, and other actors have been targeting vessels in regional waterways for years, including well before the Hamas-Israel war.

Four Washington Institute experts assess Israel’s calculus behind launching such high-profile attacks at this juncture, the likely effects on the Gaza hostage talks, Iran’s possible need for a face-saving military response, and more.

Available data suggests the Yemeni group has been going after vessels carrying Russian cargo, particularly if an operator's ships have visited Israeli ports.

Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.

Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.

Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.

Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.

Riyadh’s aim to become a global logistics hub connecting three continents will face challenges if risks to southern Red Sea shipping persist at their current levels.

Two former U.S. and Israeli officials join a security expert to examine Iran’s unprecedented attack, Israel’s potential response, and U.S. options to prevent the outbreak of full-scale regional war.

Although an Islamic State branch claimed the deadly blasts near a restive border zone, Tehran was quick to blame Israel and the United States, promising “severe retaliation” akin to what followed Qasem Soleimani’s death in 2020.

The group is using a wide range of weapons and tactics to escalate its disruption of regional maritime security, establishing selective sea denial against Israeli vessels seeking passage through the strait and threatening U.S. warships that show up to protect them.

Tehran is seemingly redoubling its efforts to equip Hezbollah and other regional allies with advanced air defense systems, which could affect Israeli and U.S. calculations in the Gaza war and beyond.